Forecast Pro users in the UK & Ireland who want to improve forecasting accuracy are always asking us which is the best way to use Forecast Pro where the historical time series data is inconsistent, is of poor quality, has too much noise in it or no discernable pattern etc. New users are naturally interested how Forecast Pro can be used to good effect in their organisation.
For forecasting one the oldest tricks in the book here is to consider aggregating the data. Companies that require both item-level and aggregate (e.g brand or product group) forecasts tend to concentrate exclusively on a bottom-up strategy: concentrating on forecasting each item and then add the item level forecasts to obtain a group forecast. Normally, however, the item-level data is difficult to forecast because it isle or lacks depth of history. MXI recommends for forecasting using a top-down strategy.
Generally with forecasting at the aggregated level there is more data to be consolidated, it performs more consistently generating better patterning for better forecasting. Forecast Pro eliminates the noise with greater ease and selects best forecasting methodology. The group forecast is generated directly (because group data is longer and more stable) and the item-level forecasts are then adjusted so that they sum to the group forecast.
With Forecast Pro at the group level simply select the Top/down facility and this pushes the forecasts results down to the sku level. The improvement in forecasting accuracy can be dramatic.
This is our view on forecasting and Forecast Pro, but we would like to hear your views. If you have the time can you please fill out our forecasting and budgeting survey
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Forecast Pro from MXI UK and Ireland is probably the most installed sales forecasting software in the world. Over 50,000 copies sold and the latest version Forecast Pro TRAC improves forecast accuracy, reducing costs in your supply chain. Sales and Operation planning at its best and for a fraction of the cost of some of the alternatives.
We are always asked why bother changing from Excel to Forecast Pro, it's okay isn't it. Yes maybe 3 years ago when the economy was booming worldwide. But now you need to carry way less stock and still meet your customer service levels. Suddenly Excel is missing the subtleties of trending. Forecast Pro reads these trends and captures them going forward, just what the Doctor ordered.
One the forecasting methodologies in Forecast Pro is Exponential Smoothing. It's an efficient, practical and effective means to forecasting time series data such as stock levels, footfall, passengers numbers, FMCG and SKU sales histories. We can automate it for batch processing, and also applied to relatively short time series and adapted to different patterns of trend and seasonality. Forecast Pro is award winning in most competitions and shows it to be more reliable than other more complicated methods of extrapolation. Perhaps its strongest attribute is its logical and tangible basis. In exponential smoothing, you estimate the current Level of your time series and then adjust it for Trends, Seasonality, and Special Events.
So next time you need to project Bank Holidays, Christmas, Summer holidays with real trending and produce savings to your organisation, think Forecast Pro. Stop spreadsheets sabotaging your business. Move to Forecast Pro from MXI UK.
The best way to see Forecast Pro is action is with your own data. Recently we launched a promotion where companies could sample Forecast Pro with their own data you find out more here: Forecast Pro
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In recent weeks we have worked with several companies who are using Forecast Pro and want to continue improving the forecast results from their time series data. Spanning the UK, Russia, Ireland and Spain each one of these customers had the same issues and so it a timely reminder of some facts.
Firstly they all recognised the strengths of Forecast Pro over Excel and its trendline data. Others were moving on from their ERP systems rudimentary calculations which are unable to interact with.
Even Forecast Pro sku forecast Software can't deliver immediate results. It takes time, trial and error is the best way forward in terms of planning. Once implemented take the time to learn your data and get to know the results. Be prepared to challenge the results. Consider separating data into 80 / 20 paretto analysis. Splitting some data into product/family (aggregating) levels and some at the SKU level can be effective.
Forecast Pro Top/down facility is very handy for people looking for a trend in difficult data. Isolating preferred SKU or categories is simple.
Another trend we notice amongst customers is over automation. Automatic forecasting relies on built-in features of forecasting software to choose an appropriate method for each of your time series. Like an automatic camera, automatic forecasting will work well in normal and normal circumstances. For difficult conditions, however, there is no substitute for your careful examination, judgement and expertise.
Lets face facts here you did not buy Forecast Pro to do the easy. So think John F. Kennedy, why do we want to do this, not because it is easy but because it is hard. Forecast Pro overide facility facility in the unlimited version and TRAC allows forecast overide. Human intuition, how else would we manage, ASH Clouds, Airline Strikes, Civil Service Go Slows.
So to recap, don't automate, don't expect immediate gratification, work the data, learn to use Forecast Pro and then you will reap the rewards indicated in the testimonials.
If you are not already on Forecast Pro try it out for yourself and see how it can help your company with our Forecasting Challenge. Read more: Forecast Pro
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Forecast Pro is a statistical forecasting tool which makes forecasting a manageable and fairly accurate and predicable exercise in UK and Ireland. Forecast Pro reads the times series data then using it's expert selector it selects most appropiate forecasting methodology automatically such as exponential smoothing, holt winters. Like most software products, you do not get maximum return on the product without some training and education. Successful Forecast Pro implementations are not realised overnight as it is a iterative process which requires much understanding of the data and the best ways to resolve forecasting difficulties. Forecast Pro is sold in the UK and Ireland by MXI. We know Forecast PRO which is why we offer the MXI challenge.
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With Foecasting and Forecast Pro overcoming these forecasting difficulties are best explained with some practical training. Part of the training would be to define a forecasting process for the organisation and document this so that all affected parties gain a clear understanding and appreciation of the process. Once you have this in place, the focus turns to the understanding of the data which is being forecasted and how Forecast Pro interprets this data. Forecast Pro will do all the hard work of doing the forecast for each item and then it's up to the user to iron out the data anomalies via their understanding of the model selection and search for a best fit forecast per item. There are many factors that affect forecasting like event modelling (weather, foot fall, population, sales promotions) so the understanding of the forecasting environment is key to its success.
We are MXI are accredited experts in the area of implementing Forecast Pro and have successfully helped clients to improve forecasting accuracy and supply chain. That's why we are running the Forecast Pro challenge.
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Auditors qualify accounts of almost all large companies stating there is a business case to reduce Excel spreadsheets as they create uncertainty for any budget or forecast and considerations should be given to the case for real financial modelling software. Spreadsheet inaccuracy and errors played its part in the world financial system collapse which is costing trillions to correct. If you spend hours copying, pasting then debugging formulas in your forecasting and budgeting Excel sheets and then spending more time trying to work out where the other errors are, then it's time for a new financial modelling approach with forecasting, budgeting and planning software.
If the answer to these questions is "Yes" or even "Maybe" then it's time to systemise your approach to financial modelling, budgeting and planning, cash flow modelling. MXI represent Quantrix in the UK and Ireland. Quantrix is the leading alternative to Excel spreadsheets. Quantrix improves your speed-to-answer and decision accuracy but it also saves you time, money and headaches by eliminating the need to manage so many worksheets for your budgeting and forecasting. Why?
The goal should be to spend less time writing formulas, checking errors in spreadsheets and lots more time understanding your business and what drives its success. As the number of formulas increase in your budgeting and forecasting models then greater the return by moving to budgeting and forecasting software. One Quantrix model even features 18,000,000 (eighteen million cells of calculations) produced by only 31 formulas in Quantrix.
There are 3 different ways in which your organisation saves money, time and improves efficiency by moving to forecasting and budgeting software.
1: Less time building your forecasting and budgeting models
2: No more errors in your budgeting and forecasting models, business plans
3: Reduce size of your budgeting and forecasting models
All of these together will provide management with their budgeting and forecasting answers faster and enabling you the business planners to drive the business forward. The Financial plan, model and budget is produced faster more accurately than before with fewer people spending much less time.
MXI believe so strongly in budgeting and forecasting software that we have a challenge for you. We are offering you the chance to see your forecast in the leading budgeting and forecasting software application. Read more here: Quantrix Trial
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Here at MXI UK & Ireland, consultants and implementers for
Quantrix financial & business modelling software we have found the point where users should start considering Quantrix.
Firstly where the Budget, forecast and modelling requirement is sizeable and requires in the involvement of several departments across the organisation. The time savings alone can run to literally hundreds or thousands of man hours improving both the budgeting process and the quality of the resultant information budget or model.
For example, Sales by product side by side, no problem for a spreadsheet. Add another column for years to compare this year over last year, still no problem. However when you need repeat this process over and over it gets more cumbersome and the possibly of small errors start to creep into the spreadsheet. Cash flows and Profit & loss statement in several different tabs, by year, by division, by territory and another tab for consolidating the corporate data with a reduced level of detail for management review, questions and decision making. The 2 dimensional worksheet runs out of puff.
Now you need a financial model supporting fully integrated financials built from the ground up which can tested for different scenarios with monthly, quarterly periods. This would require using the same items, subtotals and formulas over several worksheets. This to quote a sporting metaphor, is the sweet spot for Quantrix Modeller and where it comes into its own.
This is the definition of a structured financial model or business model, and spreadsheets were not designed for that. Terrific for calculating expense and mileage reports, and other two-dimensional analysis, but not the right option for a structured, multi-dimensional model supporting and providing key management information.
To help companies see the power of Quantrix we have arranged a challenge just for you. We will take your data and load it into Quantrix to give you a fully working forecasting & budgeting software application to try it out. Find out more here: Quantrix
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We were demonstrating Quantrix financial modelling software to an Insurance Company where we are planning to install a full UK & Ireland budgeting, forecasting and projections solution.
Naturally with rolling projections connected to their ledgers. They told us the current size of their spreadsheet was 75,000 formulas. We told them we could do it with 215 formulas roughly within a week. We said formula would be English language like and completely visible, flexible and understandable to the end user for ever. At the end of the day we weren't charging enough.
Contact us now - I would like more details.
During the meeting we needed to make a change to the Model to fit in with the way they like to do things. It was the representation of Quotes to Sale ratios and a presentational change to the Ledgers. So we added a few new dimensions in one matrix and as the MXI financial modelling tool replicates these everywhere else it worked immediately. One of the attendees said those changes alone in their 10 year old spreadsheet might have taken 2 days with checking. We made them in 5 minutes.
The Customer Service Director then asked to see what a small change in their Quotation success rate would mean to headcount, admin, revenues, sales budgets. Using the Quantrix modeller slider bar feature we showed him there and then. Watch our video to see it in action. This middle aged man's face lit up like he hadn't seen this before which he hadn't. Naturally it was all fed into the financials as well, Group Finance Chief would like that, the financial controller said.
Quantrix is sold and installed in Britain and Ireland by MXI.
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Our Quantrix UK & Ireland budgeting, forecasting and modelling teams were researching over the week end and saw this very interesting article talking about Quantrix Financial modeller. It's the same old story of someone using excel spreadsheets to enhance and report his employers large IT and ERP systems. Reports and Forecast urgently needed and nowhere to go except Excel.
Eventually our hero comes across a line item budgeting forecasting model so complex no one else he is dealing with actually understands it. He explains that over the years to be able to do the regular budgets forecast, he had to acquire skills in VBA, SQL Server, various large business software none of which added any real value to his skill set. The spreadsheet simply acted as flexible front-end to deliver all the management necessities of reporting, forecasts, etc.
He spent half of his time over a two year period becoming a bona fides Excel Pro. And that only half of that time was spent working on projects of real benefit to his job and employer. He spent considerable amount of time training the firm's new financial analysts into their role as well.
Finally before introducing Quantrix, he admits defeat with a forecasting issue so complex that even he with his years of experience in Excel could not handle. The cost of managing the issue was very high indeed. Very few people in the organisation were capable of addressing the issue within the spreadsheet. Excel had literally outsmarted itself.
Scott, that's his name, then says "One day I stumbled across Quantrix, and my life has not been the same since. I'm not kidding". Take the MXI Excel Challenge
You can read the rest of the article yourself. Read here
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Everyday people ask what else can we do with
Quantrix Modeller. Most people are familiar with the usual uses, budgeting and forecasting, rolling financial projections. Preparing the headcount, personnel budget, scheduling pay increases are easily done and much more quickly than in a two dimensional spreadsheet. It's much easier using its greater depth to project Capital Planning budgets. The real power of Quantrix reveals itself when getting into the assumptions testing and the hard numbers required to test models that are driver based and required real advanced planning.
Models that may take several months to build properly in a spreadsheet can be put together in a matter of days in Quantrix. The extra functionality and dexterity in Quantrix really shows in large Budget planning exercise. Directors can ask really complex questions about the business operations and really plan. Most companies know the metrics for their business but cannot tie it all together for their advantage.
In Sales planning for example can most companies tell you what the optimum price for a good or service is based on the number of enquiries & web visits and their sale conversion ratios, Quantrix can. Then test the effect of dropping the price, reducing marketing, increasing headcount immediately to see what impact that has on cashflows, margins, cash requirements, logistics consequences. And change exchange rate, interest rate assumption simultaneously. And then having reviewed the answers, try another scenario immediately knowing absolutely that the answers are correct and error free. That is the power of Quantrix.
With Quantrix millions of cells of data are working effortlessly to drive your organisation forward. Most spreadsheet users know that 5 year old spreadsheet is likely to be full of errors. This process is way beyond a normal budget which in most organisations is a static set of numbers adjusted a few percentage points over the previous year's figures tediously produced with great reluctance by the head of department.
A great way to see Quantrix in action is take the forecasting challenge where we will take your information and come back with a fully operational Quantrix application for you to see impacts on FX etc has on your forecasts. Find out more: Quantrix
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Chances are every month your might have to present your latest budget and forecast numbers. Even if they came from your financial planning software it is still up to you to talk to these numbers, so what can we learn from Warren Buffet? While the budgeting and forecasting software might be complex yet all the numbers produced should be simple, clear and best of all conversational. That is the true sign of the best forecasting and planning software, where you send more time interpreting the numbers and less time verifying their accuracy.
So let's learn from Warren Buffet on how you should represent your forecasting and planning figures. The first advice from Warren is to be clear and transparent. Sometimes this is hard if you are using complex excel sheets, so let your forecasting planning software for itself and present your numbers in a format that is open and provides traceability.
That leads us to the second advice on how to best your budgeting software. The numbers are not the main point, they should be an aid the point you are making. The numbers can stand for themselves but they should be only part of the presentation. Once again at times it is every hard for excel to come alive as it generally fixed, where as your budgeting and planning software can accommodate as your presentation changes.
And the last piece of advice from Warren is to put things into a realistic context. As they say some times a picture paints a thousand words. We have many clients that use their forecasting and planning software during the monthly presentation. This lets them run through various scenarios on the fly and see the changes happen before their eyes in a visual manner.
At MXI we understand that to see is to believe, so we are opening up the excel challenge. Where we take your data and provide you with a working forecast modelling application that is build around your data. So you can see for yourself how forecasting and planning software stacks up against excel. Quantrix
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Sales budgeting, modelling & forecasting is the kernel good planning and budgeting processes and is usually the most sensible place to start the enterprise planning and budgeting process. The level of Sales activity makes it easier to project Stock, Inventory turns, purchasing, personnel requirements and the organization structure required to run the business. An accurate Sales forecast which as stated above means it's a lot easier to see the cost drivers in the business model and the best place to start your financial modelling.
Most organizations refer to budgets, financial modelling or forecasting as the upcoming 12 months and projections are the following years. The complete planning cycle with the overall financial model is usually 5 years. Within the budget period there is further detailing of the rolling three, six, twelve and eighteen months forecast. In the US & UK it is usually referred to as the rolling forecast because at the end of each month the actual figures are imported into the budget for comparative purposes. And once the imported actual figures are imported, variances reported and hopefully analysed for discrepancies. The budget, financial model, forecast is rolled forward one month.
In preparing any Sales budget or Sales forecasting across a large corporate or Multi National, the process of developing a sales budget or forecast is getting more detailed and complex. Modern ledgers systems report a lot of detail. And this has created a need to project sales forecasts at the line item level in every market, territory where the company operates. The ongoing financial crisis means the task is more complicated than previously as customers can not be relied on to behave so predictably making the forecasting and budgeting process more difficult.
At MXI we have a range of software products to assist in this process enabling people and companies to forecast and budget better using Forecast Pro for time series forecasting which replicates seasonality, trends, weather, events etc. This greatly improves the accuracy of the sales forecast and delivers much better Sales management KPI's to larger organizations. The best way to experience Forecast Pro for yourself is to try it out on your data: Find out more at Forecast Pro
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Quantrix DataPush available in the UK & Ireland from MXI Software, steps up the power budgeting and forecast tool Quantrix. This integrates data from Quantrix by "pushing" it to databases and other business applications. Quantrix DataPush from MXI in the U & Ireland is an add-on product to the business modeling and analytics solution, Quantrix Modeler. Enabling Companies to implement distributed budgeting and planning solutions for improved collaboration. The thrust is to improve planning by reducing the amount of data entry and human error.
Mark Richardson, Technical Practice lead MXI explains why DataPush and Quantrix Modeler delivers advantage over traditional budgeting, forecasting, and planning tools, including:
1: Improved Collaboration: As well as providing a single data source for consolidated corporate budgeting, Quantrix DataPush "pushes" segments of a model out to individual departments, divisions or business units. Models remain linked, ensuring that each contains accurate, up-to-date information from visible, trustworthy data sources, improving collaborative processes and information confidence.
2: Real Business Focus & Analysis: Quantrix DataPush enables participants in the budget process to focus their attention and energy on developing realistic and strategic business models, rather than spending time on data entry.
3: Real and Properly informed Business Knowledge: Quantrix business planning models are based on structured, historical data that can be linked to actual data over time in order to dynamically compare planned against actual performance. This gives Budget heads, CEO, Sales Directors, Supply Chain people a chain to take corrective actions, increase marketing spend or reduce expenditures. Quantrix DataPush then "pushes" model data back into databases, ERP, and other business applications, offering businesses more insight into important information for planning and forecasting.
Our clients will be using Quantrix DataPush to integrate budgets and plans with existing databases, flat files, spreadsheets, matrices, and all types of business applications via an easy-to-use Wizard.
Finally Mark Richardson, MXI UK & Ireland Technical practice lead summarises the core value of Quantrix datapush facility. "DataPush is core to Quantrix distributed budgeting and planning solution, closing the analytics loop enabling organisations to centre and consolidate their most important core planning into a single data source that is used to enable corporate planning and operational and strategic business planning and improvement.
At MXI we believe that to see is to believe, so we are offering you the chance to experience Quantrix for yourself. Click here to find out more: Quantrix
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When we talk about forecast modelling software many people ask what is it. Is forecast or financial modeling software just not excel with a few more coloured cells, well no. With proper financial modelling software, you can analyze and forecast processes or events such as sales that take place over time. You can identify previously unseen trends and anticipate fluctuations so you can more effectively plan for the future. Whether you want to understand past trends, forecast the future or better understand how your business functions, financial modelling software provide a wide range of analytical tools that ensure your success.
Financial modelling software should offer a broad array of econometric, time series and financial techniques that enable modelling, financial and simulation of business processes for improved strategic and tactical planning. It can help you understand the impact that factors such as economic and market conditions, customer demographics, pricing decisions and marketing activities have on your business. Over time your financial modelling software should become part of very business decision.
Some of the benefits our clients see with financial modelling software are able to analyse the impact of promotions and events. The time series and econometric capabilities of modelling software provide users with several mechanisms for determining promotional lift. The depth and flexibility of your modelling software can and should accommodate any business scenario. With financial modelling software determining the effectiveness of promotions and events enables you to better allocate marketing dollars in the future.
Another benefit that our clients see from forecast modelling software is that it can help you understand which key business drivers are having the highest impact on overall demand. You can model customer demand based on marketing mix activities that measure the impact of pricing, advertising, in-store merchandizing, store distribution, sales promotions and competitive activities. Using simulation and optimization tools in financial modelling software, you can maximize investments to drive profitable volume growth.
If you are ready to learn more about forecast modelling software can we suggest you take advantage our free Forecast Pro offer, click here to found out more: Forecast Pro
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Quantrix users in UK and Ireland email us asking Quantrix Financial Modelling Tips. We wrote some comment about what best practice is. So we are some financial modelling tips on what not to do when writing a model or implementing a budgeting and forecasting solution for your enterprise.
Quantrix budgeting and forecasting, Quantrix Modelling and financial modelling needs best practice guidelines also which we referred to in a previous blog.
One of the first financial modelling tip is mixing your time based reporting units in the dimension. Organise yourself, the budget, model, cashflow plan in Months, Weeks, Quarter consistently. That's really important for the quality, integrity and most important the clarity of the budget or financial Model. Use financial modelling software such as Quantrix in a way that takes advantage of their power.
Another Quantrix financial modelling tip is simplicity and brevity in formula writing. Don't write huge big complicated formulas. Clarity is always valued in a budget and forecasting process Model. Mathematical prizes are not the objective clarity of communication is. And that's precisely why you would be using Quantrix financial modelling instead of Excel. Don't write long multi line formulas. Financial Model formulas are better short and easily understood sometimes like financial modelling tips.
The next financial modelling tip is that circular references are permitted obviously but they cause instability. So avoid them where possible or simply keep them to minimum. Keep circular reference to the minimum for the best financial modelling.
The last financial modelling tip is Quantrix financial modelling is pure so "Don't Cheat", forced corrections are precisely that, forced. Spreadsheets are full of them unintentionally sometimes. Quantrix makes it easy to spot errors, will keep highlighting the error until resolved. Call us or email us if you can't fix the error. Best practice is always to keep the Budget & forecast pure not forced. Spreadsheets entice quick fixes owing their limited two dimensional nature but added functionality and purity of Quantrix encourages to work the errors through to an elegant resolution.
And a final bonus financial modelling tip thought for good financial modelling "NO numerical values in formulae (eg =sales/12)". This is "hard coding" and it is best avoided and there are lots of ways to avoid it.
If you feel you are still forcing your financial modelling why not try Quantrix out on your own data and compare your forecast against Quantrix: Find out more: Quantrix Trial
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If like most companies you are using Excel to produce the key forecasts in your business and haven't made the switch to Forecast Pro. Then what benefits could you expect to receive from the move to Forecast Pro from MXI. Excel is quite intuitive, easy to use and flexible. Frequent re-starts and crashes waste a lot of time, people are spending as much as 90% of the time checking and rechecking the data in spreadsheets and before even beginning to the analysis. Can you see the benefits already from Forecast Pro?
So to the investment case in Forecast Pro and the reason for our bold headline. Have you ever really counted the cost of poor customer service, stock outs, higher than necessary stock/inventory levels, cost of expediting urgent orders. Most people are afraid to actively manage down to change/reduce the safety stock levels of key items needed in the business out of fear and lack of certainty. Using Forecast Pro can really help here getting over the fear factor and introducing real statistical forecasting. An estimate of stock level reduction/improvements might be as high as 10-15%. That's both an investment case for improved forecasting and a real benefit to your business. Now are you thinking about the switch to Forecast Pro?
Client of Forecast Pro from MXI typically expected and achieved to reduce inventories and warehousing cost up-to 10%. Faster stock turns through improved stock accuracy means many customers can reduce the freight and delivery costs nearly 25%. Customer Service levels are usually one of the earliest key metrics to improve normally. One recent customer reduced the level of backorders from over 200 items at the worst times to now regularly less than 10 items. And with that change in backorders saw their investment in Forecast Pro straight away.
We at MXI understand that seeing is believing, so we are offering you the chance to see your own data in Forecast Pro, click here to find out more: Forecast Pro Offer
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How can
Forecast Pro help me, well I don't want to spend £50,000 improving forecasting but I need to get something working fast. Now is the time to get real and improve your judgemental (finger in the wind) forecasting. And that is where we come in and come in strong with Forecast Pro.
Forecast Pro from MXI will produce accurate forecasts quickly to which you later you can apply your experience and knowledge. Going forward you will be able stand in front of colleagues and board members defending your forecasts and putting an end to under forecasting or over forecasting. The award winning forecast accuracy in Forecast Pro uses proven statistical forecasting methods which incorporate Statistical, Mathematical or Quantitative forecasting methods.
Forecast Pro of course covers the most common time series forecasting methods such as moving average, exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins. These forecasting methods make it possible to identify the underlying factors that can or could influence the variable element of your forecast. This is where Forecast Pro stands above the average excel sheet.
Here are some examples of how Forecast PRO has been used and succeed in forecasting. Health authorities use Forecast Pro to manage resources based on incidence of Cancer, Heart attacks etc. Some other great example of Forecast Pro are Tax authorities projecting Tax Revenues, Fast moving Consumer Goods Companies managing their supply chains and Airports planning staffing levels based on forecasts of passenger numbers and mix. So if you have data then Forecast Pro can forecast it.
Therefore Forecast Pro can come help me by applying a little science and forecasting technology. Forecast Pro will improve my time series forecasting accuracy. And to help you a 100% money back guarantee eliminates any risk to your organisation. To starting improving your forecasting try Forecast Pro for yourself: Forecast Pro Trial
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