Trends, Seasonality::Can I do this in sales forecasting? Read on
As budgeting and forecast experts we are often asked what financial modelling software to select to improve an organisations forecasting accuracy to improve business planning and business planning strategies. Further most organisations want to reduce the cost of the budgeting cycle, takes less time doing it particularly gathering the data to do so and make more use of the plan when created.
So we need ask some questions.
Goals: What do we need to achieve to become successful?
Measures: What parameters will we use to know if we are successful?
Targets: What quantitative value will we use to determine success of the measure?
Initiatives: What will we do to meet our goals?
Seasonality and Trending is usually a big issue for forecasting and planning as it plays a very big role Supply Chain planning, margin analysis, logistics and profit projections. The large ERP systems just have enough insight or flexibility to deliver the forecasting accuracy required. We constantly come across companies who are working with 40 - 60% forecasting accuracy where they need 70% plus accuracy at least.
For example we use Forecast PRO sales forecasting software exponential smoothing to detect seasonal changes in data by ignoring the irrelevant fluctuations irrelevant. Forecast PRO exponential smoothing (unlike moving averages smoothing) older data is given progressively-less relative weight (importance) whereas newer data is given progressively-greater weight.
Also called averaging, it is employed in making short-term forecasts. Our Excel challenge works with organisation everyday to demonstrate how we can speed up forecasting, sales and operations planning, demand management. Check out the excel challenge for yourself to see how you can start moving in the right direction.
Contact MXI Software